CIS321

__General Information:__

Course: Introduction to Probability and Statistics (CIS321)

Instructor: Jorge Luis Romeu,
Research Professor. Dpt. Mech. & Aerosp.

Email: jlromeu@syr.edu; Web Pages: http://myprofile.cos.com/romeu and http://web.syr.edu/~jlromeu

Required Textbooks: __Miller & Freund’s: Probability
and Statistics for Engineers__, (Richard A. Johnson).

Classes: will be held on Tuesdays/Thursdays:

Class Dates: 1/17 to 5/02; Instructor reserves the right to reschedule a class, if necessary.

Office Hours: Tuesdays/Thursdays, right after class.

__Course Objectives:__

To introduce engineering students to the theory and practice of statistics and develop statistical thinking.

__Requirements:__

Students are required to have an account in the Sunix computer system for email communication with the Instructor, and among them. Students may use statistical software in the system to solve problems and small group projects. Students will be organized in teams of four to six, to collectively resolve (and also occasionally present in class) short statistics group projects.

__Course Syllabus (Optimal):__

1. Introduction (Ch. 1): case study and examples of uses of statistics in problem solving.

2. Treatment of Data (Descriptive Stats; Ch. 2): Frequency distributions, Pareto, Dot, Stem-and-leaf and other diagrams and graphs; descriptive measures and their calculations. Case study.

3. Probability (Ch. 3): sample spaces, events, counting rules, axioms of probabilities, elementary theorems, conditional probability, Bayes theorem, mathematical expectation. Case study.

4. Probability Distributions (Ch. 4): random variables, discrete distributions: Uniform, Binomial, Hypergeometric, Geometric, Multinomial, Poisson. Approximations. Chebyschev’ theorem.

5.
Probability Densities (Ch. 5): continuous random
variables and distributions:

6.
Sampling Distributions (Ch. 6): populations and
samples, sampling distributions of the mean and the variance; Student t, F and

7. Inferences Concerning the Mean (Ch. 7): point and interval estimation.

9.
Applications in Reliability and QC (

__Grade Determination:__

There will be one in-class exam every month: in February (descriptive and probability, Chs. 1, 2, 3), in March (discrete and continuous distributions, Chs. 4, 5), and in April (applications, Chs. 6, 7, 10, 15) and a comprehensive final. All exams will be based on, or similar to , exercises and problems seen in class, in Lab, in the readings and in the homework. A formula Sheet will be allowed. Final grades will be based upon (i) the two best monthly exams (25% each), (ii) the final (40%) and (iii) the quizes/group work (10%).

__CIS321 Teams, __

Engineers use statistics to solve problems and to take decisions under uncertainty. In addition, engineers often work in pluridisciplinary teams and must be able to present their work to peers and non-technical personnel. Toward these goals study groups (teams) of four to six students will be formed the first day of class. Students are free to exchange groups with another, as long as the teams remain of the same size.

Students will be assigned readings (see Web tutorials) and problems that they will resolve and deliver by groups. Teams will work collectively, communicating via email, meeting periodically, etc. Consultation among teams is fine, but each team will work individually. Sporadically, teams will be randomly selected to present their mini-projects in class. Homework problems will not be collected or graded, but they will serve as basis for Exam problems and questions, as well as for sporadic, unadvertised, short quizes.

The following Web tutorials, complementing the textbook material, will be covered in the course:

__Data
Quality and Pedigree.__ Romeu, J. L. AMPTIAC Newsletter. http://ammtiac.alionscience.com/pdf/1999MaterialEase9.pdf

__Reliability Statistics I: Random Variables and
Distributions__. Romeu, J. L.

Journal of the

http://src.alionscience.com/pdf/1ST_Q2001.pdf

__Statistical Assumptions of Exponential
Distributions.__ Romeu, J. L. RAC START.
Volume 8, Number 2. http://src.alionscience.com/pdf/E_ASSUME.pdf

__Empirical Assessment of Normal and
Lognormal Distribution Assumptions__. Romeu,
J. L. RAC START. Volume 9, Number 6. http://src.alionscience.com/pdf/NLDIST.pdf

__Empirical
Assessment of the Weibull Distribution__. Romeu, J. L. RAC START. Volume 10, Number3. http://src.alionscience.com/pdf/WEIBULL.pdf

__Graphical Comparison of Two Populations__.
Romeu, J. L. RAC START. Volume 9, Number 5. http://src.alionscience.com/pdf/2POP.pdf

__Statistical Confidence__. Romeu, J. L. RAC START. Volume 9, Number 4.

__http://src.alionscience.com/pdf/STAT_CO.pdf
__

__Reliability Estimations for the
Exponential Life.__ Romeu, J. L. RAC START. Volume 10, Number 7. http://src.alionscience.com/pdf/R_EXP.pdf

__Quality
Control Charts__. Romeu, J. L. RAC
START. Volume 11, Number 4.

http://src.alionscience.com/pdf/QCCHARTS.pdf

Updated: I/06